In October 2016, PMI rise 0.6% points. From the analysis report, 10 sub-indices composed of steel circulation PMI 4-liter six-drop. Sales volume、sales price、total orders and purchase cost index rise 4 points, and the rest fell.
In October, the sales volume of steel trade enterprises rebounded and orders increased. However, the purchase cost increased significantly, the financing environment weakened, and the business confidence weakened and the purchasing intention declined. Due to these reasons the overall judgments is November steel demand weaker.
This month sales index was 53.7%, rise 5.9% points from the previous month, higher than the critical point. This indicates that the steel trade enterprises increased sales, steel circulation market activity increased. From the regional perspective, in October the country’s six major regional recovery in varying degrees. Including Southwest and Central South China a large increase in sales volume index rebounded.
The month orders index was 53.1%, up 5.3% points from the previous month, above the critical point. Indicating a rebound in terminal steel demand.
Among them, the domestic orders index of 53.2%, rise 5.4% points from the previous month. Steel trade enterprises in October from domestic customers increased orders, the downstream end-user steel demand improved. Export orders index of 53.9%, the chain increased by 9.8% points, indicating that international demand improved.
Inventory index was 47.2%, down 3.0% points from last month. Among them, the increase in inventory of enterprises decreased by 14.2% points from the previous month. Stocks flat business increased by 4.7% points last month, inventory reduction of enterprises increased by 9.5% points last month.
From the regional perspective, the six regional stock index fell. And from enterprise sales scale, annual sales of 50-100 million tons of steel trade enterprises to the fastest speed of inventory.
Purchasing willingness index in October was 47.2%, rise 3.0% points from the previous month, below the critical point. Indicating steel trading companies will reduce purchasing intentions, procurement needs reduced.
From the regional perspective, the six regional purchasing willingness index are down. The annual sales of more than 10 million tons of steel trade procurement demand fall back to top.
October trend index to 47.9%, down 1.9% points from the previous month, below the critical point. Among them, the enterprise bullish market share decreased by 6.0% points from the previous month. The proportion of companies looking to reduce the market last month, down 3.1% points. The proportion of corporate bearish outlook increased 9.1% points from the previous month. This indicates that steel trading company confidence weakened .
From the regional perspective, the six regions of North China, South Africa, Southwest and Northwest regions fell. This is the largest decline in the southwest region.
Domestic steel prices higher volatility. Lange Steel National steel composite price index for the 111.7, up 6.29% late last month. The price index for the material is 114.2, up 6.51%; plate price index is 109.0, the chain rose 6.15%; profile price index of 111.2, the chain rose 4.52%; pipe price index of 115.3, the chain rose 7.42.
Macroeconomic situation, the first three quarters of the macroeconomic stable operation, steady growth policy effect appears. The first three quarters of GDP grew 6.7%, remained stable. In the context of continued weak external demand, expanding domestic demand to become the key to steady growth.
From January to September, driven by strong growth in real estate and automobile consumption, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 10.4%, a new high in the year;
Investment in fixed assets grew 8.2% YoY and began to stabilize. In the growth of demand and production capacity to work together, the cumulative industrial value-added growth of 6%, industrial production is stable, PPI negative growth in September ended the first positive turn, corporate profits gradually improved.
Demand, investment in key areas this year, pulling and capacity to form a “plus one minus”, the industry plays a vital role. From January to September, real estate and manufacturing investment rose to 5.8% and 3.1%, respectively, compared with January-August growth rate increased by 0.4 and 0.3 % points, infrastructure investment totaled 19.4% year on year growth rate down slightly , But still the fastest growing areas.
October Ministry of Finance announced the third batch of PPP demonstration projects during the year, a total investment of more than 1.17 trillion yuan. PPP projects in the past few cases to see the actual landing rate is not high, the key lies in the lack of willingness to participate in private investment.
However, this phenomenon is improving, from January to September cumulative private investment grew by 2.5%, down the trend to control and signs of recovery.
PPP project is mainly based on infrastructure projects, private investment in the PPP model in the future is expected to become an alternative to real estate, finance, manufacturing weakness after the new growth point, but also to stimulate demand for steel to provide new impetus. PPP project average landing period of 13.5 months, is expected to have a practical impact in the second half of next year.
Steel sales rebounded, orders increased, but the impact of rising raw material prices, steel production costs and circulation costs significantly increased procurement costs.
Into November, most of the winter into the winter season, the outdoor construction of the basic stagnation, resulting in lower purchasing intentions, business confidence in the latter part of the weakening,the overall judgments in November is steel demand in the market a little weaker but cost may goes higher .
CAMELSTEEL suggest if you want to buy steel from China please make order quickly otherwise the cost will be more high in next month.
